About the data
This explorer maps the regional sea level projections from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Values are median projections of relative sea level change, which includes vertical land motion, measured from a 1995–2014 baseline.
What you can change
- Emissions scenario. Five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways from SSP1-1.9 (very low emissions) to SSP5-8.5 (very high). The SSP5-8.5 low confidence projection includes ice sheet processes, such as marine ice cliff instability, whose likelihood is poorly understood.
- Warming level. Projections grouped by global surface warming of 1.5, 2, 3, 4 and 5 °C instead of by emissions pathway.
- Contribution. The total, or one process: glaciers, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, land water storage, sterodynamic (ocean density and circulation) change, and vertical land motion. Total rate shows the rate of change in mm per year.
Ranges
The likely range spans the 17th to 83rd percentiles (the 16.7th and 83.3rd quantiles in the AR6 files, so the range can differ from tools that use the 17.0th and 83.0th by about a centimeter). The very likely range spans the 5th to 95th percentiles and is shown for total sea level. Process contributions do not add up exactly to the total, because percentiles of a sum are not the sum of percentiles.
Map
Projections are published on a 1° global ocean grid and at about 1,000 tide gauges. With smooth shading on, the map interpolates between grid cells and redraws at screen resolution as you zoom. Turn it off to see the original 1° cells.
Sources
Fox-Kemper, B., et al. (2021). Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Garner, G. G., et al. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections, Version 20210809, Zenodo. Kopp, R. E., et al. (2023). The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea level (FACTS), Geoscientific Model Development.